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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help speed up the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference obstructed from the leadership if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.