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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.